CommSec State of States report – June Quarter 2019

Each quarter CommSec attempts to find out by analysing eight key indicators: economic growth; retail spending; equipment investment; unemployment; construction work done; population growth; housing finance and dwelling commencements.


Just as the Reserve Bank uses long-term averages to determine the level of “normal” interest rates; CommSec have done the same with the economic indicators. For each state and territory, latest readings for the key indicators were compared with decade averages – that is, against the “normal” performance.

The latest State of the States report also includes a section comparing annual growth rates for the eight key indicators across the states and territories as well as Australia as a whole. This enables another point of comparison – in terms of economic momentum.

 

For the first time in three quarterly surveys, Victoria is the best performing economy in its own right. Victoria ranks first on economic growth, retail trade, the job market and construction work done. Victoria’s lowest ranking is fourth on relative population growth.

 

NSW is now in second spot. NSW is consistently strong across the indicators and is first or second on six of the eight indicators.

 

Tasmania has edged up in the performance rankings to outright third position. Tasmania is ranked first on relative population growth, housing finance and business investment and is in second spot on dwelling starts.

 

The ACT is in fourth spot, losing ground to Tasmania on housing indicators. The ACT is ranked second on housing finance and business investment and is third ranked on retail trade and unemployment.

 

Queensland is now in fifth position on the economic performance rankings. Queensland is third ranked on relative economic growth and relative population growth. But Queensland is fifth or sixth on the other indicators.

 

South Australia is now in sixth position. But as has been the case for the past 18 months, there is little to separate Queensland and South Australia.

 

Western Australia retains its seventh position on the economic performance rankings and can be broadly grouped with Northern Territory. Both economies continue to face challenges with the transition of resource projects moving from the production to the export phase. Western Australia is seventh on seven of the indicators and eighth on relative economic growth. Encouragingly, annual population growth is now the strongest in almost four years. The Northern Territory is seventh-ranked on economic growth but lags all other states and territories on the other seven indicators.

 

To view the whole report, click here.