Financial year performance – what can we expect for 2023/24?

With 2 weeks to go to the end of the Financial year, and with June shaping up to be a “flat to marginally positive” month for investment markets what can we expect from a performance perspective?

  • The US share market is on track to deliver a double-digit return – circa 12 – 13%.
  • The Australian Share market is also on track to deliver circa 9 – 10%.
  • Fixed Income should deliver a 1 – 2% premium on cash, i.e. circa 6- 7%.
  • Cash rates remain flat at around 4 – 5%.
  • Whilst the AUD to USD experienced a low of 63 cents it started at 67c (1/07/2023) and currently (13/06/2024) at 67 cents.  

In summary, following a strong 2023, performance is looking very good for the 2024 Financial Year.



Morningstar Multi Sector Index Performance – May 2024 




One of the key points from the table above is the 3, 5 and 10 year performance numbers which are in line with our broader forecasts. You can see by the chart below that we have seen a significant improvement since around November 2023.


AUSTRALIAN ALL ORDINARIES INDEX – 1 July 2023 – 13 June 2024 – excluding dividends and franking credits.  




US DOW JONES INDEX – 1 July 2023 – 13 June 2024 – excluding dividends. 




Structural consideration to investing in June – Managed Funds.

When you invest in a managed investment you become a unit holder, i.e., the cash you invest is converted to a number of units that has an associated value. The unit price value then rises or falls depending on the performance of the underlying securities. While the managed fund usually pays a monthly or quarterly distribution, the end of the financial year is very important from a tax perspective.

No matter if you are a unit holder for 1 day or 365 days as of 30 June all unit holders are treated equally in relation to any distributions, which may include realised capital gains tax. Therefore, in a strong performance year you should be careful investing late in a financial year, unless the entity you are investing in is a pension (0% tax) or super (15% tax). 


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