How have Global share markets performed since Donald Trump was elected?
In the days following the election, global share markets rose very sharply. The 2024 US election gave Donald Trump a resounding victory and the Republicans full control of Congress and Senate, which will mean enormous changes and possibly even a wholesale reshaping of the US and global economies. Trump has four years as president, and he is in a hurry to move forward with his economic agenda. Key areas of focus include:
- Tax cuts pro-growth and inflationary
- Tariffs to hit growth stocks
- US Dollar higher
The US Dollar after the election
- The dollar has risen moderately in the days since the election in an almost exact retread of price action following the 2016 election.
- This rise mostly reflects expectations of fiscal easing and stronger growth and still has room to go based on interest differentials vis-à-vis trading partners.
- A second, larger phase of dollar strength may come if the U.S. puts tariffs on China, and if the yuan falls against the dollar—like in 2018—to offset the tariff competitiveness hit.
- Such a fall could spark large depreciations across emerging markets and weigh on commodity prices, tightening global financial conditions and raising risks of negative spillback to the U.S.
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